Friday, November 15, 2013

Will new Government come with Silver Bullet

Foreign institutional investors (FII) are known to be market movers as far as Indian stock markets are concerned. In fact, it was on the back of strong inflows of FII money that the BSE-Sensex recently hit its all-time high 

But some of the most respected foreign investors have eluded the Indian markets. Take for instance legendary value investor Warren Buffett. After having kept away from the Indian economy for a long time, it was indeed a pleasant surprise when he did make a foray into India's insurance sector a couple of years ago. But he pulled out of India in July 2013. But Buffett has not been the only disgruntled investor to have given up on India. The list is long... 

This is why we are not at all surprised when we hear another respected global investor and commodity expert Jim Rogers portraying an unflattering view of India. 

In an interview with Jim Rogers in July 2013 after a gap offive years. He had been asked whether his views had changed about India. And this is what the gentleman replied, "Well, the government has got worse, India has got worse, the debts got worse, inflation has got worse, the currency has got worse, everything has got worse in India and the politicians are blaming gold for the problems in India and now I think the situation in India is beginning to deteriorate." 

Recently, some market commentators have opined that the worst is behind for India. Some large global financial banks such as Goldman Sachs have given a bullish outlook for India against the possibility of Narendra Modi-led BJP coming to power. 

What does Jim Rogers make of this? As per an interview in Livemint, Rogers thinks that BJP coming to power alone cannot solve India's problems. Of course, it could lift sentiment. The stock markets would cheer the change of government. But a year later, the markets would realise that nothing has really changed. Rogers believes that neither the Congress nor the BJP have been or will be good for India. "The best run Indian state has not done as well as the worst run Chinese state since 1980," says Roger. 

The new government would have to do a lot more than mere cosmetic changes to revamp the Indian economy. The most important thing according to Rogers is the need to open up the economy more. There is a strong need for an overhaul in the economic environment. Doing business in India should not be so difficult and dependent on political connections. 

We very much concur with the views of Jim Rogers. A change of the ruling party would only lift sentiments and stock prices in the short term but would do nothing to solve India's long term problems. For that we need real, tough reforms. 

What, according to you, will the new government have to do to put the Indian economy back on track? Let us know your comments

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